WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 18: U.S. President Donald Trump delivers a speech at the Ronald Reagan Building December 18, 2017 in Washington, DC. The president was expected to outline a new strategy for U.S. foreign policy through the release of the periodic National Security Strategy, a document that aims to outline major national security concerns and the administration’s plans to deal with them. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
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The Trump Administration released its National Security Strategy (NSS) last night. The NSS is a precursor to the National Defense Strategy (NDS) — a document that goes into greater specifics about U.S. military priorities and strategy. The NDS could be released as early as this weekend.
In some respects the new security document could have been written 200 years ago, given its highly favorable endorsement of the Monroe Doctrine, which warns adversaries against seeking a military foothold in the Western Hemisphere. Some pundits have taken to calling this renewed commitment to policing the hemisphere the “Donroe Doctrine” in honor of President Trump. The challenge posed by China, and the state of security relations in the Middle East and Europe also receive attention, but the Western Hemisphere is prioritized in the document.
The most dangerous application of the administration’s hemispheric focus is the prospect of a full-scale military intervention in Venezuela, an extremely risky move that could impose severe economic and human costs. The rationale for attacking Venezuela — that it is shipping large quantities of deadly drugs into the United States – is vastly overstated. A recent New York Times analysis explains why the focus on Venezuela is misguided:
“Mr. Trump’s focus on Venezuela is at odds with reality: The vast majority of cocaine is produced and smuggled elsewhere in Latin America, according to data from the United States, Colombia and the United Nations.”
In addition, Venezuela doesn’t produce fentanyl at all. Fentanyl is one of the most dangerous of the wide array of drugs that are smuggled into the U.S. each year, and President Trump has targeted the import of fentanyl, one of the deadliest street drugs currently available.
Some proponents of U.S. intervention have suggested that toppling the Maduro regime in Venezuela would be a relatively simple matter. History suggests otherwise. Past U.S. efforts at regime change have not gone well. One Bush administration official assured the public that the war to dislodge Saddam Hussein would be a “cake walk.” Instead, it was a 20 year war that cost well over $1 trillion and cost tens of thousands of lives on all sides. And the result of that enormous investment of blood and treasure was a sectarian regime in Iraq that made it easier for ISIS to get a foothold in that nation.
In short, the public and the Congress should beware the prophets of quick and easy regime change in Venezuela.. The potential costs are too high and the rationale is too weak. That’s one of the reasons a bipartisan group of senators and representatives has introduced a War Powers Resolution aimed at blocking a war with Venezuela. Leaders of the effort include senators Tim Kaine (VA), Charles Schumer (NY), Rand Paul (KY), and Adam Schiff (D-CA).
The new focus on the Western Hemisphere will not come at the expense of spending designed to prepare for a war with China and to maintain the ability to intervene anywhere in the world on short notice. Without a change in this ill-conceived “cover–the- globe” strategy, our current eye popping $1 trillion Pentagon
The budget will be just the beginning of a military spending binge that will drive up the deficit and consumer funds needed to address other pressing national needs.
Taken as a whole, the NSS too often focuses on the wrong problems, or uses the wrong tools to deal with actual ones. This has to change. We need a national security strategy grounded in the realities of the 21st century, not a throwback to failed policies of the past.
