Assam Poll Predictions: Will Himanta’s BJP Retain Power In Eastern Sate? Here’s What Survey Says

India

oi-Prakash KL

Will Himanta Sarma-led BJP government retain power in upcoming state polls? Well, the incumbent administration is cruising toward a decisive victory, according to a survey.

The IANS-Matrize Opinion Poll has projected a victory for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), suggesting that Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has successfully neutralized any potential anti-incumbency sentiment.

The opinion poll paints a picture of a state largely satisfied with the status quo. The BJP is expected to secure a commanding 43-44% of the vote share, which the survey translates into a staggering 96 to 98 seats in the 140-member Assembly. This puts the ruling party well above the majority mark, reinforcing Sarma’s grip on the state’s political landscape.

In contrast, the Congress party, despite an energetic campaign led by Gaurav Gogoi, appears to be struggling to turn momentum into seats. While they are projected to capture a respectable 39-40% vote share, this is only expected to yield between 26 and 28 seats. This disparity highlights a significant efficiency gap in the Congress’s ability to convert votes into legislative victories.

The “Grand Old Party” has faced a turbulent lead-up to the elections. Internal friction and the high-profile exits of veterans, including figures like Bhupen Borah, have hampered the opposition’s ability to present a unified front. While “others” and independent candidates are expected to bag a moderate share of the votes, the survey suggests they will remain marginal players, unlikely to influence the eventual formation of the government.

The election will be held alongside polls in Kerala and Puducherry on April 9. The results will be declared on May 4.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma wasted no time in reacting to the announcement. Shortly after the Chief Election Commissioner’s briefing, Sarma posted a succinct message on X (formerly Twitter): “Yato dharmastato jayah”, a Sanskrit phrase meaning “Where there is righteousness, there is victory.” The statement reflects a leader confident in his governance record and the “pro-incumbency” wave suggested by the polls.

As the campaign enters its final, most intense stretch, the BJP appears to be running on a platform of continuity and development, while the Congress faces the uphill task of closing a nearly 70-seat gap in the projections.