The holiday season is over, and it’s back to the grind as we look forward to the first whole trading week of 2026. We’re still a few weeks away from the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season, so many companies are in a corporate blackout period. Our focus will be on macroeconomic updates and geopolitical headlines, including developments in Venezuela, where the U.S. conducted a surprise attack over the weekend and removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. While the attack on oil-rich Venezuela was unexpected, oil analysts told CNBC that the energy markets had already priced in the risk that a conflict with the country would disrupt oil exports. President Donald Trump on Saturday said that the U.S. is “going to run” Venezuela for a period until it “can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.” We’ll learn more about how investors are digesting the news when futures open Sunday evening. 1. How is the labor market doing? The most significant economic update of the week arrives on Friday with the release of the December nonfarm payrolls report. This will represent the first real test for the market in 2026 and help further shape investor thinking as to when we will see the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the CEM FedWatch tool, there is a 50/50 likelihood of a cut occurring at the conclusion of the March Fed meeting. As of Friday, economists polled by FactSet expect 65,000 December job additions, a 4.5% unemployment rate, down a tick from 4.6% in November, and a 3.6% annual increase in hourly earnings. Investors can first look for clues to the job numbers by checking out ADP’s release on Wednesday, though it’s not a perfect proxy. Also, on Wednesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey (JOLTS) will show how tight the labor market is, which may inform wage inflation estimates and, in turn, price inflation. A tighter job market means employers must offer higher pay packages to attract talent. In contrast, a loose labor market means employers face less competition for talent and therefore don’t need to increase financial incentives. 2. Is manufacturing growing or shrinking? The ISM manufacturing report, out Monday, will show whether the sector grew or shrank last month. According to FactSet, economists expect another month of contraction, with a reading below 50, at 48.7. However, that would be slightly slower than the November rate. The delayed October report on factory orders, which, though noteworthy as it will speak to what was going on during the first month of the quarter, which companies have yet to report, should be taken with a grain of salt, given how backward-looking it now is. 3. Is the long-awaited rebound in housing any closer? The December ISM services report will be released on Wednesday, with economists polled by FactSet expecting a slight slowdown from November but still an expansion. A 50 reading is the threshold between contraction and expansion. As of Friday, we’re looking at a 52 estimate, down slightly from the 52.6 level in November. Lastly, October housing starts will be released on Friday. Lower interest rates are vital to a housing rebound, but more supply is the longer-term answer to the affordability crisis facing first-time homebuyers. Monday, Jan. 5 10:00 a.m. ET: December ISM Manufacturing Tuesday, Jan. 6 After the bell: AAR Crop (AIR) Wednesday, Jan. 7 Before the bell: Albertsons (ACI), UniFirst (UNF), MSC Industrial (MSM) After the bell: Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies (JEF) 8:30 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Survey 10:00 a.m. ET: December ISM Services 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTs Thursday, Jan. 8 Before the bell: TD SYNNEX (SNX), Acuity Brands (AYI), Commercial Metals (CMC), RPM International (RPM) After the bell: Tilray (TLRY), WD-40 (WDFC) 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims Friday, Jan. 9 8:30 a.m. ET: December nonfarm payrolls report 10:00 a.m. ET: November Existing Home Sales (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
