Japan’s Tourism Growth Faces Challenges in 2026: Impact of China’s Decline, Increased Spending from South Korea, U.S. and Europe – Here’s What You Need to Know

Japan reached unprecedented heights in 2025, with over 43 million foreign visitors arriving and spending a staggering $60 billion. Yet, despite this record-setting year, 2026 seems poised for a different story. With a notable decline in Chinese visitors, Japan’s tourism sector faces a subtle shift. While South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States remain strong sources of tourists, the overall growth rate is forecasted to slow. According to JTB, Japan’s largest travel agency, the anticipated decrease in Chinese tourists could lead to a slight dip in the number of visitors this year, though overall visitor spending is expected to rise. Let’s delve into how this change will impact tourism in Japan and what travelers can expect for the rest of the year.

Record Tourism in Japan in 2025 – A Year Like No Other

Japan’s tourism industry celebrated a remarkable milestone in 2025, with an impressive surge in international visitors. 43 million foreign tourists traveled to Japan, marking a 15% increase from 2024’s numbers. The growth was not only in visitor numbers but also in spending, which surged to approximately $60 billion. This growth was powered by the influx of international travelers from diverse regions like South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. The year also witnessed the increased popularity of cultural experiences, such as the famous hatsumode visits to temples, with tourists flocking to places like Kawasaki Daishi Temple near Tokyo to mark the New Year.

The post-pandemic tourism recovery had been robust for Japan, boosted by the return of international travel following COVID-19 restrictions. However, this upward trajectory is now facing challenges, particularly in the form of geopolitical tensions that have started to influence travel patterns in early 2026.

What’s Behind the Decline in Chinese Visitors?

The most significant factor affecting Japan’s 2026 tourism outlook is the sharp decline in Chinese visitors. In December 2025, the number of travelers arriving from China dropped by nearly 50% compared to the previous year. This sudden change can be largely attributed to political tensions between China and Japan, particularly over sensitive geopolitical issues. In November 2025, the Japanese government made a statement regarding its stance on Taiwan, suggesting that a potential Chinese invasion could provoke a military response from Japan. In response, the Chinese government discouraged travel to Japan, which has traditionally been one of the largest sources of tourists for the nation.

For Japanese tourism operators, this has created a significant challenge, as Chinese visitors have long been a major contributor to the country’s travel industry. Historically, China has consistently ranked as Japan’s largest source of foreign tourists, but as of late 2025, this trend has begun to shift. This dip has raised questions about the future of Japan’s tourism industry in the face of changing international dynamics.

JTB’s Forecast for 2026: Slower Growth But Higher Spending

According to Japan’s largest travel agency, JTB, the overall number of foreign visitors is predicted to decline slightly in 2026. However, this decline is expected to be largely attributed to the Chinese market. The forecast indicates that the total number of foreign visitors could fall by 5%, primarily due to reduced arrivals from China. On the flip side, visitor spending is projected to increase. This is due to the higher spending power of tourists from regions like Europe, the United States, and Australia, who are expected to stay longer and spend more per trip.

Interestingly, while the number of visitors from China has dropped, travelers from Europe and the United States are showing signs of increased interest in Japan. This shift in demographics points to the potential for Japan to attract more diverse international visitors in the coming months. Japan’s unique blend of history, culture, and modernity continues to hold appeal for travelers from around the world.

The Ongoing Appeal of Japan for International Tourists

Despite the slowdown in Chinese tourism, Japan remains one of the most desirable destinations in Asia. The country’s diverse attractions, from the bustling streets of Tokyo to the serene temples of Kyoto, continue to captivate travelers. Moreover, Japan’s emphasis on cultural tourism and experiential travel offers unique opportunities for visitors. For those looking to immerse themselves in Japanese culture, participating in traditional tea ceremonies, visiting historic castles, or exploring the famous mountainous regions of Hokkaido provides experiences not found elsewhere.

Increased tourism spending reflects an ongoing interest in luxury tourism as well. With Japan’s premium experiences such as stays in five-star hotels, high-end shopping districts, and gourmet dining, travelers are opting for longer stays and higher-spending trips. The economic impact of this spending cannot be overstated, especially as it contributes to both local economies and national revenue.

What Travelers Can Expect in 2026

While Japan may face a slight decline in overall visitor numbers in 2026, there are still many reasons for travelers to visit. With the recovery of key international markets, including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States, Japan’s tourism sector is far from in crisis. In fact, there are opportunities for tourists to experience Japan’s rich cultural heritage and modern marvels in ways that may be less crowded and more enjoyable than before.

Travel tips for tourists visiting Japan this year include:

• Book early to secure the best hotel deals, especially in popular cities like Tokyo and Osaka.
• Consider visiting lesser-known regions like Kyushu and Shikoku to avoid crowds while still experiencing authentic Japanese culture.
• If you’re a fan of winter sports, Hokkaido offers world-class skiing and snowboarding, with plenty of activities to enjoy even during off-peak months.

With tourism spending on the rise and diverse international visitors flocking to the nation, 2026 still promises a great year for travelers exploring Japan’s fascinating culture, bustling cities, and stunning landscapes.