Major Indexes Surge After Volatile Session; Bitcoin, Crypto-Tied Stocks Soar

Prediction Market Contracts Tied to Iran War Sow Confusion—and Frustration

FROM 44 minutes ago

Any bet goes on prediction markets, but death complicates the trade.

Folks who placed bets linked to the fate of Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and were set to profit handsomely, were caught off guard when the trade didn’t immediately settle following the weekend strikes on the country, and its leader’s subsequent death. Prediction market operator Kalshi effectively voided the contract.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour took to social media to address those “frustrated about the Khamenei market,” explaining that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission disallows folks from directly profiting on “war, assassination, terrorism, or other violent outcomes.”

On rival Polymarket’s international venue—where the CFTC’s rules don’t apply—bettors had to wait for a similar contract to be resolved amid user disputes about when exactly the Iranian leader was declared “out.”

Polymarket eventually settled the trade to the affirmative. One winning bettor would appear to have made over $123,000 on the “Khamenei out” contract. Event contracts linked to geopolitical events, as popular as they are with regular folks and institutions alike, are generating fresh drama. Earlier this year, someone profited handsomely from an unlikely bet on the removal of Nicolás Maduro as Venezuela’s president, raising questions on whether insiders were using misappropriated information for personal gain. Now, issues stemming from event contracts linked to recent current events show how complicated they can be to settle.

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

GitLab Stock Sinks on Software Firm’s Weak Full-Year Guidance

FROM 1 hr 1 min ago

GitLab’s weaker-than-expected fiscal 2027 guidance is spooking investors.

Shares of GitLab (GTLB), whose fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results topped estimates, sank 8.5% Wednesday, a day after the software company issued soft full-year projections.

The San Francisco-based firm sees fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share of $0.76 to $0.80 on revenue of $1.099 billion to $1.118 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expected $1.01 and $1.12 billion, respectively.

“GitLab reported solid fourth-quarter results, but fiscal 2027 guidance came in short of consensus expectations as management reset the bar and acknowledged that GitLab is going through a pivotal transition period where product and [go-to-market] execution will need to be sharp,” William Blair analysts wrote in a note.

Investors have been worried in recent months about how artificial intelligence advancements could disrupt software stocks. Shares of GitLab have dropped 35% year-to-date and more than 60% over the past year.

Here’s Much Traders Expect Broadcom Stock to Move After Earnings

FROM 3 hr 11 min ago

Broadcom is due to report earnings after the closing bell Wednesday. Traders anticipate the event could lead to a big swing in the chipmaker’s stock.

Options pricing suggests traders see Broadcom (AVGO) stock moving nearly 8% in either direction by the end of the week. A shift of that size from Tuesday’s close could lift shares back to around $339, recovering some of their recent losses, or pull them down to $289.

Shares of Broadcom have lost nearly one-quarter of their value from their December highs, amid concerns about growing competition, margin pressures from rising memory prices, and some skepticism around the sustainability of AI-driven growth. Many of its rivals, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), have also been pressured in recent weeks.

Earlier this month, Bank of America analysts said they expect Broadcom to top consensus estimates, as major clients such as Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) dramatically boost spending on AI infrastructure.

Read the full article here.

–Kara Greenberg

The Housing Shortage Intensified in 2025

FROM 3 hr 28 min ago

Finding a house to buy isn’t getting any easier. 

The shortage of housing inventory got worse in 2025, according to Realtor.com, which found that the market needs 4 million more homes to meet buyer demand.

The inventory gap edged higher because the 1.36 million housing construction starts in 2025 fell 50,000 short of the number of households formed during the year. That extended an inventory shortfall that has persisted for a decade. 

“Even when annual construction and household formation are roughly balanced, the market is still digging out from more than a decade of underbuilding,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a prepared statement. “Without a sustained and targeted increase in housing supply, particularly in areas with strong job growth and persistent demand, affordability challenges will continue to sideline many would-be buyers.”

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

Wall Street’s ‘Fear Index’ Jumped 10% Tuesday—Here’s What That Means for Your Money

FROM 3 hr 51 min ago

Wall Street’s much-watched fear gauge jumped to its highest level of the year on Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran conflict entered its fourth day,

The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, climbed as much as 31% to an intraday high of 28.15 this morning, before finishing the day nearly 10% higher at 23.57. The index is up 19% since last Friday’s close, before U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran over the weekend.

The big moves in the VIX mirrored wild swings in major stock indexes. The benchmark S&P 500 index fell as much as 2.5% in the first hour of Tuesday’s session before finishing the day less than 1% lower, the second straight day that stocks have rebounded from steep declines.

Investors are scrambling to price in new risks amid fears that war in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, spurring inflation and weighing on economic activity. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, have risen 13% so far this week, pushing their year-to-date gain to 35%.

JPMorgan economists warned the conflict “generates greater macroeconomic risk than recent military conflicts,” comparing it to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.1

A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows—would directly slow the global oil supply, potentially reigniting inflation. That could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates with a weakening job market and inflation still about a percentage point above the central bank’s target rate of 2%.

Read the full article here.

–Peter Gratton

Bond Yields Rise as Oil Prices Add Inflation Pressure

FROM 4 hr 1 min ago

The bond market stands to take more hits from the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, as some investors worry a surge in oil and gas prices could rekindle inflation.

Energy prices haven’t spiked to worrying levels yet, but analysts see risks that oil prices will surpass the more than 10% rise already seen since the U.S. and Israeli air strikes in Iran. If higher prices persist, the bond market, which stayed relatively stable Tuesday after a volatile start to the week, could face renewed pressure.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, a key input into mortgage rates, is now up to about 4.08% and at risk of rising higher, analysts say.

“The longer the war continues, the greater the risk of further increases in energy prices, which could keep upward pressure on Treasury rates,” wrote John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.

Read the full article here.

–Polo Rocha

Why Wall Street Is Taking the War in Iran in Stride

FROM 4 hr 36 min ago

With every passing day, the conflict in the Middle East expands to new fronts, but that’s not scaring off investors.

Stocks rebounded on Tuesday from an early morning sell-off, an echo of Monday’s session. The major indexes all fell about 2.5% in the first hour of trading Tuesday, and then slowly and steadily pared their losses to finish the day down less than 1%. Why have investors been so quick to shrug off escalation and buy the dip? 

The worst case scenario for the U.S. stock market in light of events in the Middle East “would be if oil prices were to rise sharply and persistently enough to pose risk to the duration of the business cycle,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts in a recent note. “However, because we believe we’re in an early cycle environment today with many favorable drivers,” oil would need to be a big drag on the economy to offset its strength.

Read the full article here.

–Colin Laidley

US-Iran Conflict Clouds Fed’s Path on Interest Rates

FROM 5 hr 13 min ago

The U.S. attack on Iran has complicated the Federal Reserve’s already challenging task of managing inflation and maintaining high employment.

Officials at the Fed are in the same boat as other forecasters: waiting to see how the outbreak of violence in the Middle East plays out, how long it lasts, and how severely it disrupts the U.S. economy.

The war has already caused energy prices to rise significantly, with WTI Crude up 8% since the conflict began as of Tuesday afternoon, and a gallon of regular gasoline up 10 cents to $3.11 per gallon, according to AAA.

The spike in energy prices has immediate implications for the Fed’s efforts to push inflation down to a 2% annual rate, especially if the war spreads or drags on for a long time. The war has disrupted oil exports from the Middle East, with more severe effects on U.S. energy prices the longer the conflict continues. On Wednesday, two Fed officials said they were watching the situation.

Read the full story here.

–Diccon Hyatt

Stock Futures Rise After Wild Session

FROM 5 hr 26 min ago

Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.2% higher.

S&P 500 futures pointed up 0.3%.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%.