Oil steadies after wild price swings

Good morning and welcome back. In today’s newsletter:

• Oil settles at around $90 a barrel after wild price swings

• Israel rejects Lebanon’s request for halt in fighting to allow for talks

• Kremlin backs covert campaign to keep Viktor Orbán in power

• Pushing private assets to Europe’s investors

We begin with oil, which has settled around $90 a barrel after wild swings sparked by mixed messages from Donald Trump’s administration on the Iran war.

Mixed messages: US energy secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the US Navy had “successfully escorted” an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The post was deleted in less than two hours and his statement was denied by the White House.

Market update: Crude at one point dipped to $88.33 a barrel in Asia trading this morning in anticipation of a large release of oil from strategic reserves co-ordinated by the International Energy Agency.

Asian stocks rebounded. Follow our live blog for more updates.

Read more coverage of the conflict:

• Iran war endgame: Trump has failed to articulate the US’s objectives in Iran but said the conflict would be over “very soon”. Here’s how it could unfold.

• Knock-on effects: A surge in the price of sulphur has highlighted how the impact of the war is spreading to hit wider supply chains.

• Air defence: Complex systems to fend off missiles are being shown to be less cost-effective for modern warfare, spurring governments and companies to look for cheaper solutions.

• The cost of regime change: The scale of destruction and the Islamic republic’s resilience have alarmed even those supportive of foreign intervention.

• Economic consequences: There are lasting lessons about energy resilience to be learnt from the conflict, writes Martin Wolf.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: Opec releases its monthly oil report. Germany and the US release February inflation data.

• UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves answers questions on her Spring Statement from members of the Treasury Committee.

• Results: Balfour Beatty, Inditex, London Gatwick Airport, Legal & General and Rheinmetall report earnings.

Sign up for today’s exclusive FT subscriber webinar about the Middle East war. Columnists Kim Ghattas, Edward Luce, Katie Martin and Gideon Rachman will join Alec Russell, foreign editor, to dissect the political, military and diplomatic calculations behind the conflict.

Five more top stories

1. Israel has rejected diplomatic overtures by Lebanon to halt its offensive against Hizbollah, demanding that negotiations only take place “under fire”, said people with knowledge of the matter. The talks, mooted to be held in Cyprus, have not materialised.

2. Exclusive: The Kremlin has launched a disinformation campaign aimed at helping Viktor Orbán get re-elected next month, in an operation that frames the Hungarian prime minister as the only candidate who can keep the country sovereign, people familiar with the matter have said.

3. Exclusive: JPMorgan Chase has clamped down on its lending to private credit groups. Bankers are looking to cut risk as concerns mount over the credit quality of companies in their stables, a sign that traditional Wall Street lenders are growing cautious of the industry.

4. Borrowers on the most contentious UK student loan plan owe four times as much on average as those on the previous system, the first detailed data shows. Figures released by the Student Loans Company to the FT show the average debt of someone on a “plan 2” loan is £43,645.

5. Lloyd’s of London has said it will “still provide cover to basically anyone who asks” as the insurance market hits back at criticism over cancelling policies and raising prices for ships stuck in the Gulf. Read the full report.

The Big Read

The EU has been stepping up efforts to help funnel cash savings into new asset types that have sometimes outperformed mainstream alternatives. But the drive comes just as some similar products in the US have run into trouble. Are Europe’s investors at risk?

We’re also reading . . . 

• ‘Refinancing merry-go-round’: The failure of UK bridging loan specialist MFS has sent shockwaves across Wall Street amid fears of weak underwriting standards.

• Fighting deepfakes: People are now little better than chance at telling what is real and what is not, writes Anjana Ahuja.

• Climate finance: The collapse of Koko Networks, Kenya’s clean cooking pioneer, has rattled global carbon markets.

Graphic of the day

Since the hours after the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, a radio station has been broadcasting what appear to be coded orders in Farsi. Former US intelligence officers said the broadcasts were probably an emergency Washington measure to maintain contact with agents in Iran. Listen to the ghostly messages yourself.

Take a break from the news . . . 

At Paris Fashion Week, Chanel’s Matthieu Blazy has injected new depth and craft to house staples while offerings from Givenchy and Céline married modernity with ease. Carola Long gives a round-up.