Starbucks is headed for a major transformation in 2026. After a difficult 18 months marked by slowing U.S. traffic, inconsistent execution, higher labor and restructuring costs, and persistent weakness in China, the coffee giant’s shares have struggled to find their footing. Still, we believe Starbucks is one of the five high-quality Club stocks poised for a significant rebound in 2026 . Starbucks Year-to-date performance: down 8% Forward price-to-earnings multiple: 33.3 versus a five-year average of 27.8 Our rating: Buy-equivalent 1 rating Our price target: $100 a share SBUX YTD mountain SBUX stock performance year-to-date. A turnaround is still on track, with CEO Brian Niccol at the helm. Niccol, who has been in the role for a little over a year, wants to regain full operational discipline, rebuild customer trust, and prove he can deliver the same brand and growth acceleration he achieved when he led the fast-food chain Chipotle . Jim Cramer reminds investors that Starbucks is a ” long-term turn ” due to the scale of its restructuring and the complexity of its challenges. Ultimately, 2026 should be the year Starbucks’ turnaround takes clearer shape if the company delivers on these three things. 1. The company must fix its core U.S. business. Niccol’s Green Apron reinvention plan — centered on simplifying store operations, reducing wait times, and getting drinks to customers faster — must begin to show measurable improvements in throughput and customer satisfaction. Starbucks unveiled the Green Apron model back in July, committing $500 million to the effort. It’s Starbucks’ largest investment in operations and customer service in company history. There have already been signs of progress. U.S. company-operated comparable store sales, for example, turned positive in September, management said in its latest quarter . Starbucks noted that sales momentum remained positive through October as well. That’s a welcome development, but investors want to see a stronger breakthrough. Once investors see more proof that Niccol’s investments translate to faster lines, higher peak-hour beverage output, stronger traffic trends, and ultimately more sales, that should be a catalyst for the stock. That’s not all that could move the needle. 2. If Starbucks can better show its value proposition to customers, the coffee giant can increase its transaction volumes. As seen during the holiday shopping season, consumers are increasingly seeking value —a high-quality experience at an affordable price. This is especially true for discretionary purchases such as beverages and snacks. Starbucks has moved to innovate its menu and offer more compelling drinks, including its latest protein drink line. Improving engagement with the Starbucks Rewards member cohort could be another lever for growth. However, some Wall Street analysts argue that, with elevated restructuring and marketing investments and coffee inflation, Starbucks may face headwinds in the first half of 2026. That prompted Mizuho to model “no operating margin expansion” in fiscal 2026, which is why analysts lowered fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates to $2.40 from $2.56 in November. The firm has a hold-equivalent rating on the stock. Similarly, Jefferies sees an “unfavorable” setup for Starbucks next year, citing “ongoing margin pressure.” The firm has a sell-equivalent rating on shares. Both Wall Street firms cite a lack of visibility around growth in the key U.S. market for their cautious sentiment. We hope to get more insight on this when Starbucks holds an investor day on Jan. 29, one day after it releases fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings. 3 . Starbucks has mitigated its risk in China by forming a joint venture with investment firm Boyu Capital. Weakness in the company’s second-largest market has weighed on shares this year. The proceeds from the deal, however, should give management flexibility to alleviate its pressured balance sheet. We want to see that deal stabilize China. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long SBUX. See here for a complete list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
