The tourism industry in Portugal is set to encounter a difficult year, with analysts predicting a “anaemic” rate of growth in the next year, or 2026. While it is likely that some areas, such as the Porto or Madeira areas, will experience success, the tourism market in the country is set to experience a sluggish rate of growth. The main reason for this is the current restrictions on the capacity of the Lisbon airport, which is already handling passenger traffic beyond its capacity.
The tourism industry in the country, which has emerged as one of the major driving forces behind its economy, is also forecast to expand in a moderately paced way, but worries about its occupancy levels in hotels, revenues, and their ability to affect the economy of the country negatively have been raised. The tourism industry has been one of the major contributors to the GDP of Portugal, but despite having overcome so many hurdles, concerns about how much more it would be able to grow have started to arise.
Lisbon Airport Struggling to Meet Growing Demand
The main issue affecting Portugal’s tourism growth, particularly in Lisbon, is the airport’s inability to handle the increasing number of passengers. Lisbon’s Humberto Delgado Airport, the country’s busiest hub, has long been operating above its capacity. With the influx of international travelers, particularly from the United States, and an increase in direct flight routes, the airport has become a bottleneck in the country’s ability to handle demand. The result has been chaotic scenes at passport control, with long queues and delays caused by the implementation of biometric border control checks for non-EU passengers. This situation has left tourists frustrated, with reports of waiting times of several hours to enter the country, affecting the overall travel experience.
The lack of efficient infrastructure at Lisbon Airport is now seen as a critical issue for the country’s tourism sector. Hoteliers and travel industry experts are warning that without significant improvements to the airport’s capacity and efficiency, the sector may face long-term challenges in meeting growth targets. The problems at Lisbon airport are also beginning to raise doubts about the potential for price increases and whether tourism operators will be able to attract enough visitors to maintain healthy revenues.
Tourism Sector Faces Lower Occupancy and Doubts About Price Increases
Bernardo Trindade, President of the Portuguese Hoteliers Association (AHP), has projected a tough year for the country’s tourism industry in 2026. He forecasts that Portugal will see fewer tourists staying in hotels, even though the same clientele is expected to return for more frequent visits. However, this trend will lead to lower occupancy rates per hotel. Trindade also expressed concerns about the possibility of price increases, given the stagnant growth in the sector and the difficulties in attracting new visitors.
Despite a modest increase in occupancy in 2025, which saw a growth of 2% compared to the previous year, the outlook for 2026 is not as optimistic. With the rise in hotel capacity, the market may soon face a situation where more accommodations are available, but fewer tourists are visiting, leading to lower occupancy rates and potential price cuts. This is a scenario that could have a negative impact on the national economy, especially since tourism accounts for a significant portion of the GDP. In 2024, tourism contributed 16.6% to Portugal’s GDP, an amount that mirrors the sector’s performance in previous years.
Impact of New Hotels and Accommodations: Overcapacity or Opportunity?
One of the key developments affecting Portugal’s tourism market in 2026 is the opening of 2,400 new hotels, pensions, and tourist residences. While the influx of new accommodations could offer more options for visitors, there are concerns that the market may become oversaturated. Cristina Siza Veira, a tourism expert, has pointed out that the new hotels, combined with the constraints at Lisbon Airport, could result in a plateau in the tourism market. This would mean that instead of experiencing growth in revenue and occupancy, the industry may find itself stuck in a cycle of overcapacity, with too many rooms and not enough demand to fill them.
The introduction of these new accommodations has raised questions about whether the country is building too much too quickly. If the airport issues are not addressed, it could lead to a situation where the added supply of accommodations does not correspond to a rising demand for tourism, leading to stagnant growth in the industry.
The Montijo Airport Debate: A Potential Solution or a Short-Term Fix?
Another critical issue contributing to the stagnation of the tourism sector is the debate surrounding the construction of a new airport in Montijo. This proposed airport would serve as a supplementary terminal to Lisbon’s Humberto Delgado Airport, providing additional capacity for international flights. The Montijo option, however, has been controversial due to environmental concerns, particularly regarding its impact on nearby wetlands, an important birding site.
Despite these concerns, some industry leaders, such as Raul Martins, owner of the Altis Hotel chain, have argued that a provisional airport at Montijo could help alleviate the pressure on Lisbon Airport. Martins suggested that Montijo could handle European flights, allowing Lisbon’s main terminal to focus on intercontinental flights. This, he believes, would increase capacity, improve the travel experience for visitors, and help stabilize hotel occupancy rates and prices.
However, the government has yet to make significant progress on the Montijo project, and critics argue that it could be years before a new airport solution is fully realized. Meanwhile, Lisbon’s current airport struggles to meet demand, and the tourism sector continues to feel the strain.
Pressure on the Government to Address Airport Infrastructure
As the issues with Lisbon Airport become more apparent, the pressure on the Portuguese government to take action is building. The ongoing delays in airport expansion, combined with the dissatisfaction with the current state of infrastructure, have created a situation where the government is facing mounting calls for urgent measures to improve the situation. This pressure is not only coming from the tourism industry but also from businesses and local communities affected by the current limitations.
At the same time, the government is also dealing with the privatisation of the national airline TAP and the development of a long-term tourism strategy for 2035. These factors complicate the decision-making process, but it is clear that a resolution to the airport issue is becoming increasingly urgent.
The Path Forward for Portugal’s Tourism
For Portugal, 2026 is expected to be another testing year for tourism, as growth will be constrained by the continuing lack of capacity in Lisbon Airport. While Porto and Madeira, among other regional markets, may have greater buoyancy, Lisbon remains a choke for the sector in Portugal. Against the development of new accommodation supply, and with the debate on Montijo Airport ongoing, the industry reaches an important juncture. What the government does next regarding airport infrastructure will be critical in defining if Portugal retains its status as one of Europe’s principal tourist destinations, or whether stagnation continues across the sector for a number of years.
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